Donald Trump’s Chances Soar in Top Election Forecast

Donald Trump has surged ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in the latest update of The Economist’s election forecast, marking the first time in two months that the former president has led the presidential race.
The Monday update gives Trump a 54 percent chance of winning, an improvement from just a week ago when his chances were at 48 percent. The model forecasts a tight race, but Trump’s momentum appears to be growing.
Trump’s rise comes at the expense of Harris, whose chances have fallen to 45 percent, down from 51 percent just a week prior.
The simulated elections in the model show a range of possible outcomes, with Trump projected to win between 179 and 341 Electoral College votes, while Harris could secure between 197 and 359. The median projection for Trump is 276 electoral votes to Harris’ 262.
This shift represents a significant swing from earlier in the campaign, when Harris appeared to be gaining ground as undecided voters leaned her way.
Now, the tide seems to be turning in Trump’s favor as some of those same voters, whom The Economist suggest may have been “Republican leaners all along,” are aligning behind him.
According to the model’s analysis, the shift has “nudged the forecast towards him in every state” while still indicating a highly competitive election.
The Economist’s model, developed in collaboration with Columbia University political scientist Andrew Gelman, simulates more than 10,000 election outcomes using a blend of state and national polls, economic indicators and historical voting patterns.
While the national polls continue to show a narrow lead for Harris, with FiveThirtyEight placing her 1.7 points ahead on average, the battleground states are telling a different story.
Trump has taken marginal leads in Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, according to FiveThirtyEight, which could prove pivotal given their importance. Harris, meanwhile, is holding slim leads in Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada.
The closeness of the race, with polls remaining well within their margins of error, leaves the outcome uncertain.
“The race remains more or less a coin toss,” The Economist said in Monday’s update, despite Trump’s recent gains.
Harris’ decline mirrors a broader trend seen in other election forecasts. FiveThirtyEight recently downgraded her chances to 47 percent, while RealClearPolitics’ betting odds now give Trump a 59 percent chance of winning to Harris’ 39.8 percent.
Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns via email for comment.